CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-09-09T00:16:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/).
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Sep 10 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to the long-duration M4/1n
flare at 09/0029 UTC from Region 2158 (N15E14, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta).
This M4/1n flare had associated Type II (999 km/s estimated shock
velocity) and Type IV radio sweeps, a 10cm (370 sfu) radio burst, and an
asymmetrical, full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) which was first
observed in LASCO/C2 imagery at 09/0006 UTC. As previously reported, the
majority of the ejecta appeared to be heading north and east of the
Sun/Earth line, however, after detailed analysis forecasters have
determined this event to contain an Earth-directed component. A NOAA
Scale G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for 12
September with an estimated shock arrival time early in the day.
Residual CME effects warrant a NOAA Scale G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm
Watch for 13 September. Regions 2158 and 2157 (S14E03,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continue to be the regions of interest as they are
the largest and most magnetically complex on the visible solar disk.
Region 2158 continued to consolidate in the spots just south of the
large leader. Region 2157 was responsible for a C3/1n flare at 09/1226
UTC and showed signs of growth in its intermediate spots. There were no
additional CMEs observed in satellite imagery during the reporting
period.
  
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)with a
chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater) for the next three days (10-12
Sep). Regions 2157 and 2158 continue to be the likely source of
significant flare activity.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was still slightly elevated but continued a steady decline. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached a high of 3.8 pfu at 09/0110
UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days
(10-12 Sep). A chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm remains
for the next three days (10-12 Sep) due to the increasingly favorable
locations of Regions 2157 and 2158.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of a nominal solar wind
regime. Solar wind speeds began the period near 450 km/s and reported
period-ending speeds in the 375 km/s range. IMF total field values
remained steady between 2 nT to 5 nT throughout the period, while Bz
fluctuated between +/-4 nT. Phi angle remained in a negative (toward)
orientation for the majority of the period with slight variability into
away (positive) solar sector orientation after 09/1600 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced on day
one (10 Sep) as coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence
begins. A solar sector boundary change from a negative (towards) to a
positive (away) solar sector is necessary before observing impacts from
this feature. Day two (11 Sep), conditions should return to near
background levels as CH HSS effects subside. Day three (12 Sep), should
see the arrival of the 09 Sep CME, early in the day, when an enhancement
in the interplanetary magnetic field and a simultaneous increase in
density, speed, and temperature are expected at the ACE spacecraft in
conjunction with the forecasted shock arrival.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet with two isolated periods of unsettled
conditions between 09/0000-0300 UTC as well as 09/2100-09/2400 UTC.
 
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (10 Sep) due to weak, positive-polarity CH HSS influence. A
return to mostly quiet conditions is anticipated for day two (11 Sep) as
CH HSS effects wane. Early on day three (12 Sep), the 09 Sep CME
mentioned above is expected to impact the Earth's magnetosphere. Quiet
to major storm (G2/Moderate) conditions are expected as a result.

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Sep 10 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 10-Sep 12 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 10-Sep 12 2014

            Sep 10     Sep 11     Sep 12
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        3          1          4     
06-09UT        2          1          6 (G2)
09-12UT        2          1          5 (G1)
12-15UT        2          1          4     
15-18UT        1          1          4     
18-21UT        2          2          3     
21-00UT        3          2          4     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on
days one and two (10-11 Sep).  G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms
are expected on day three (12 Sep) due to effects from the 09 Sep CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 10-Sep 12 2014

              Sep 10  Sep 11  Sep 12
S1 or greater   30%     30%     30%

Rationale: A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists due to
potential flare activity from Regions 2157 (S14E03) and 2158 (N15E14) as
well as already enhanced background conditions.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 09 2014 0030 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 10-Sep 12 2014

              Sep 10        Sep 11        Sep 12
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           30%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected with a
chance for R3 (Strong) activity due to flare potential from Regions 2157
and 2158.

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